Catching up on political issues and current events. Please send your comments to rjcmp1@yahoo.com

Monday, July 07, 2003

Economic Recovery: Are We There Yet?
Is it just me, or does it seem that there’s no way to get a handle on the economy? Whenever it looks as if the economy really is moving ahead, we get some unexpectedly bad report on an economic indicator. Housing starts are up, but manufacturing is down. Consumer confidence is up, but factory orders are down. Manufacturing is strengthening in Philadelphia … but soft in Chicago. New unemployment claims are up … no, they’re down … oops, up again. Intel is gloomy about the future… Intel is optimistic about the future… But Cisco is gloomy. If there’s lots of good economic news on Monday, you can bet on a negative bombshell on Tuesday. I almost expect to hear analysis like this: “The markets reacted to all the good economic reports by driving stock prices down, in expectation of the inevitable bad news to come.” And through it all, the economy continues to grind out weak, but positive, growth quarter after quarter.
Bush in Africa
When President Bush is in Africa, let’s hope the focus is on substance, not symbol. While Africa may not seem to be of critical strategic importance, its population is growing rapidly despite the AIDS epidemic, and it's expected to triple by 2050. Africa's relative size is growing even more rapidly, as the population of developed countries levels off and declines. Population growth in Africa, without economic growth to support an improving – or even stable – quality of life, will create global pressures. By the way, it’s also simply right that the U.S. takes an interest in the suffering of this huge and troubled continent.

If you look back at the press coverage of President Clinton’s African tour in 1998, it is all about symbolism. There’s endless speculation as to exactly how explicitly Clinton will apologize for slavery, and lots of talk about the symbolism of his visit to the site in Senegal where slaves departed for America.

In a way, President Bush can thank Clinton for clearing the decks, so that Bush can focus on substantive issues of here and now. Any apology for slavery would only serve as pretext for more aid demands by unscrupulous dictators who wish to funnel the proceeds into their private accounts. It would also encourage the reparations lobby back at home. Most importantly, it would support the notion that past sins of the West – colonialism and slavery – are the root causes of the disaster that is Africa today. That would only take pressure off reforming the disastrous political and economic structures and policies across the continent.

If President Bush is true to form, he has very specific ideas for what should be done now to build strong economic, political and social structures in Africa, and to address the urgent needs for food, sanitation, and health. If he is true to form, his trip is not a series of photo ops, or an attempt to dominate the news cycles during the dog days of summer, but the beginning of a sustained – and effective – engagement in Africa.

Tuesday, July 01, 2003

The Supreme Court, Pandora, and Baghdad
The Supreme Court’s decision in Lawrence v. Texas indicates that the Court did not learn the lesson of Roe v. Wade. In both cases, the Court seemed to think that it could resolve a contentious social issue by the weight of its decision. In fact, what happened in Roe is that the Court’s attempt to short-circuit an ongoing, vigorous public debate served to polarize the country. Those who opposed abortion were no longer able to fight it out in their state legislature. They were faced with the nearly hopeless challenge of securing a Constitutional amendment.

Lawrence is different from Roe in a way, because public opinion is clearly moving against sodomy laws anyway – there was, and is, no such consensus on abortion. Of course, that makes the Court decision all the more pointless and arrogant – why couldn’t the Justices just let society work its will? But the way the Court decided Lawrence is the real problem here, because it clearly opened the possibility of Court-mandated gay marriage. And in that way, the Court has opened up another Roe-like Pandora’s box. We are already hearing calls for a Constitutional amendment to define marriage. Right-to-life supporters can tell you just exactly the chances of that ever becoming part of the Constitution.

Justice Scalia said in his dissent that the Court had taken sides in the culture wars. His comment brings to mind the fall of Baghdad, because maybe this is different from Roe v. Wade - maybe the war is over. What was expected to be a long, hard battle over gay marriage seems to be over before it began. Tod Lindberg's column in the Washington Post (via Real Clear Politics) takes a similar, broader view.